Implications of the Demographic Transition
The dynamics of human population — rates of growth, age structure, distribution, etc. — influence when and where warfare breaks out. A review of data from 180 countries, about half of which experienced civil conflict at some time from 1970 through 2000, concludes that:
Recent progress along the demographic transition — a population’s shift from high to low rates of birth and death — is associated with continuous declines in the vulnerability of nation-states to civil conflict. If this association continues through the 21st century, then a range of policies promoting small, healthy and better educated families and long lives among populations in developing countries seems likely to encourage greater political stability in weak states and to enhance global security in the future.
