Infotopia
Cass Sunstein organized an experiment in which he invited a set of Colorado citizens from two communities - liberal Boulder and conversative Colorado Springs - to come to local universities and deliberate three divisive political topics: global warming, affirmative action and civil rights. The groups - 5-7 randomly selected citizens from the same community - had a strong tendency to become more politically polarized over the course of the discussion.
In a group setting, people will often gravitate towards a strongly stated opinion, especially if their own opinions aren’t fully formed. People find it difficult to defy the will of a group, and may polarize to avoid interpersonal conflict.
The results of the Iowa Electronic Market, where users bet real money on the outcome of local and national elections, are consistently better than the results of opinion polls, a finding that’s held true over many years of experimentation.
When people are putting money on the line - real, or imaginary - they’re more likely to be right than when they’re guessing at beans in a jar. In sufficiently flexible markets, a small number of well-informed actors can steer prices in the right direction (often making money in the process from the less well-informed).