Accelerating Returns
Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns — the basic idea is that the power of technology is expanding at an exponential rate. Mankind is on the cusp of a radically accelerating era of change unlike anything we have ever seen.
In the 1980s he predicted that a computer would beat the world chess champion in 1998 (it happened in 1997) and that some kind of worldwide computer network would arise and facilitate communication and entertainment (still happening).
Don’t underestimate the power of technological change. “Information technologies are doubling in power every year right now,” says Kurzweil. “Doubling every year is multiplying by 1,000 in ten years. It’s remarkable how scientists miss this basic trend.”
Most of us fail to see the world changing exponentially because we are “stuck in the intuitive linear view.”
He explains that Moore’s Law - the number of transistors on a chip will double every two years - is but one example of the Law of Accelerating Returns. The Human Genome Project “was scheduled to be a 15-year project. After seven years only 1% of it was done, and the critics said it would be impossible. But if you double from 1% every year over seven years, you get 100%. It was right on schedule.”
Everything will be subject to his Law of Accelerating Returns because “everything is ultimately becoming information technology.” As we are able to reverse-engineer and decode our own DNA, for instance, medical technology can be converted to bits and bytes and zoom along at the same fantastic rate. That will enable overlapping revolutions in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
“The smartest (or the nuttiest) futurist on Earth,” by Brian O’Keefe