How Terrorist Groups End
A comprehensive RAND National Defense Research Institute study by Seth G. Jones & Martin C. Libicki (”How Terrorist Groups End“) analyzed 648 terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006, drawing from a database maintained by RAND and the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism.
The most common way that terrorist groups ended — 43% — was via a transition to the political process. The possibility of a political solution was more likely if (unlike al Qaida) the group had narrow goals.
The second most common way that terrorist groups ended — 40% — was through police and intelligence services either apprehending or killing the key leaders of these groups.
Military force was effective in only 7% of the cases.
Terrorist groups achieved victory in 10% of the cases.
Since 1968, approximately 62% of all terrorist groups have ended, while only 32% of religious terrorist groups have done so. No religious terrorist group has achieved victory since 1968.
Groups of more than 10,000 members were victorious more than 25% of the time, while victory was rare when groups were smaller than 1,000 members. When terrorist groups became involved in an insurgency they ended with a negotiated settlement with the government nearly 50% of the time, achieved victory 25% of the time, and were defeated by military groups 19% of the time.
Terrorist groups from upper-income countries were much more likely to be left-wing or nationalistic, and much less likely to be motivated by religion.
“U.S. Should Rethink ‘War On Terrorism’ Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida,” Rand Corporation